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      新興經濟體與發達經濟主權債務危機爆發原因比較

      目錄 摘要 Abstract 1 引言 1.1 研究背景 1.2 研究意義 1.3 研究思路、方法和數據來源 1.3.1 研究思路 1.3.2 研究方法 1.3.3 數據來源 1.4 研究內容及框架 1.5 主要創新點 2 文獻綜述 2.1 債務危機的界定 2.2 主權債務危機的根源及影響 2.2.1 新興經濟體主權債務危機成
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        目錄

        摘要

        Abstract

        1 引言

        1.1 研究背景

        1.2 研究意義

        1.3 研究思路、方法和數據來源

        1.3.1 研究思路

        1.3.2 研究方法

        1.3.3 數據來源

        1.4 研究內容及框架

        1.5 主要創新點

        2 文獻綜述

        2.1 債務危機的界定

        2.2 主權債務危機的根源及影響

        2.2.1 新興經濟體主權債務危機成因

        2.2.2 發達經濟體主權債務危機成因

        2.2.3 發達經濟體主權債務危機的影響及救助

        2.3 新興經濟體與發達經濟體主權債務成因比較

        3 主權債務危機的理論基礎

        3.1 羅默模型

        3.2 二階段模型

        4 主權債務危機實證指標選取與模型構建

        4.1 指標選取

        4.2 數據選取

        4.3 主權債務危機模型構建

        4.4 基于新興經濟體數據的實證結果分析

        4.5 基于發達經濟體數據的實證結果分析

        4.6 新興經濟體與發達經濟體主權債務危機成因比較

        5 結論與啟示

        參考文獻

        致謝

        摘要

        從 1980 年至 2009 年間,主權債務危機由新興經濟體蔓延到發達經濟體。

        1980s 年代拉丁美洲是爆發主權債務危機的主要地區,阿根廷、巴西和墨西哥等拉丁美洲的主要國家都遭受到了猛烈的沖擊,歐洲發達經濟體希臘、葡萄牙、西班牙、愛爾蘭和意大利等國也爆發了主權債務危機。導致主權債務危機爆發的原因是什么,新興經濟體與發達經濟爆發主權債務危機的原因是否相同,存在的差異又有哪些,正是本文的研究目的。

        新興經濟體與發達經濟體的主權債務危機成因既有共同點也有差異性。龐大的債務負擔是新興經濟體與發達經濟體爆發主權債務危機的重要原因。此外,導致新興經濟體和發達經濟體主權債務危機原因還與國內經濟狀況、國際經濟環境密切相關。而這些國內外經濟狀況的差異決定了新興經濟體與發達經濟體主權債務危機爆發原因的差異性。

        新興經濟體方面,以 1980s 年代拉美國家債務危機為例進行分析。拉美國家在擺脫了殖民統治以后,經濟上實現了快速發展,他們力求以自身的改革創新替代殖民者遺留下的經濟制度,不僅未能取得預期效果,反而導致經濟結構出現偏差,且為追求經濟本國經濟高速發展,采取與國內實際情況不符的“三高”政策,而又因國內資金不足,只能以舉借外債的方式募集資金進行投資,而投資結構不合理、回報率低導致資金回收困難,最終導致債臺高筑。另外,國際上恰逢石油危機,發達國家正尋求轉嫁危機的途徑,在國際貿易上實行貿易保護主義的政策并壓低進口商品價格,而拉美國家卻實施出口替代策略,這使得拉美國家不僅未獲得資金來源,反而導致自身利益受損,在墨西哥政府宣布停止償還外債之后,拉美主權債務危機全面爆發。

        發達經濟體方面,以希臘、愛爾蘭等歐洲五國債務危機為例。2008 年金融危機的爆發使得發達國家隱瞞的債務問題顯現出來,歐洲主權債務危機率先在希臘發生就是因其政府有意隱瞞債務,以致債務累積程度最終超出了其償還債務的能力。而后愛爾蘭、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙四個國家因受希臘的影響也爆發了主權債務危機。學者對這五個國家主權債務危機的成因研究發現,歐洲主權債務危機是國內經濟狀況與國際經濟環境共同作用的結果。從國內經濟狀況來看:1)這五個國家都是高福利國家,福利支出數額龐大;2)國內產業結構不合理,政府財政虧空,常年赤字;3)政府大量舉債。從國際經濟環境來看:1)金融危機的沖擊;2)國際信用評級機構的推波助瀾。

        總體看來,龐大的債務量是主權債務危機爆發最重要的原因,國內經濟狀況和國際經濟環境的影響也至關重要。根據上述理論,本文選取包含債務量與國內外經濟因素的七個指標--債務(政府債務或外債總量)占 GDP 百分比、經濟增長率、政府財政赤字、通貨膨脹、老齡化程度、外匯總儲備和凈出口作為解釋變量,以危機是否爆發作為被解釋變量,對數據進行回歸得出結果,并根據實證分析結果對比新興經濟體和發達經濟體主權債務危機成因的異同,得出以下結論:

        第一,新興經濟體和發達經濟體主權債務危機發生都是受債務影響。債務數額巨大導致債務償還困難,出現違約風險,是債務危機爆發的重要原因。

        第二,通貨膨脹和國際儲備對新興經濟體債務危機有顯著的影響,對發達經濟體的影響不顯著。通貨膨脹率越嚴重主權債務風險就越大,國際儲備越高則越不易發生主權債務風險。

        第三,財政赤字和老齡化對發達經濟體主權債務危機爆發的原因,而對新興經濟體債務危機爆發不存在顯著的影響。財政赤字水平越高,老齡化程度越高,發生主權債務危機的風險越高。

        關鍵字:主權債務危機;新興經濟體;發達經濟體;人口老齡化;財政赤字

        Abstract

        From 1980 to 2009, sovereign-debt crisis from spreading to developedeconomies in emerging economies. 1980s Latin America is a major area of thesovereign-debt crisis. Argentina, and Brazil and Mexico and other Latin Americacountries have experienced a violent impact, and over the past few years, anddeveloped economies of European sovereign debt crisis broke. Leading to what wasthe cause of the sovereign debt crisis, leading emerging economies and developedeconomies of the sovereign debt crises are the same. What is the difference, is thepurpose of this study. Emerging economies and developed economies ' sovereign-debtcrisis genetic similarities and differences. Emerging economies and huge debt burdensare important reasons for the sovereign-debt crisis in advanced economies.

        Sovereign debt of emerging economies and improved economies causes thedifference is determined by the domestic economy and the international economicenvironment that face them differently. Result in emerging and developed economies,sovereign debt crisis and the domestic monetary situation, the worldwide economicenvironment are closely related.

        Emerging economic context, analysis by the 1980s Latin American debt crisis,for example. Latin America national in out has colonial ruled yǐ hòu, economic shàng achieved has fast development, they seeks to itself of reform innovation alternativecolonists legacy xià of old economic system, but failed to made expected effect,economic structure appeared deviation, and for pursuit economic national economichigh-speed development, take and domestic actual inconsistent of “three high” policy,and due to domestic underfunded, only to borrowed external debt of way raised fundsfor investment, but and due to investment structure not reasonable, and returns lowled to funds recycling difficult, eventually led to debt. In addition, coincided with theoil crisis in the world, developed countries seek scapegrace, while Latin Americancountries import substitution policies, implementing protectionist policies ofdeveloped countries in the West, making Latin American countries did not receivefunding not only will cause hurt their interests, in Mexico after the Governmentannounced that it stopped servicing its foreign debt, Latin American sovereign-debtcrisis broke out.

        In advanced economies, Greece, and Ireland, such as the PIIGS debt crisis, forexample, after decades of development in these countries, the economic situation inthe country has stabilized, domestic industrial layout has also been formed. If it is notthe financial crisis of 2008, developed countries ' debt problems will probablycontinue to hide Greece's sovereign debt was due to the Government's intention toconceal, that debt accumulation levels will exceed its capacity to repay debt,sovereign debt crises lead in Greece. And Ireland, and Italy, and Portugal and Spainsovereign debt crisis broke out in four countries.

        Scholars on the causes of the five countries' sovereign debt crisis found thatEurope's sovereign debt crisis is the result of the State in the economy and theinternational economic environment. Judging from the domestic monetary conditions:

        1) these five countries are welfare States, and huge welfare spending; 2) unreasonabledomestic industry structure, the Government's fiscal deficit, annual deficit; 3)Government to borrow heavily. Judging by the international economic environment: 1)the impact of the financial crisis; 2) international credit-rating agencies helped.

        Overall, a huge amount of debt is sovereign debt.

        Overall, a huge amount of debt a sovereign debt crisis, the most prominentreason, domestic economic conditions and the impact of the global economicenvironment is also crucial. According to above theory, paper selected contains debtvolume and both at home and abroad economic factors of seven a indicators--debt(government debt or external debt total) accounted for GDP percentage, and economicgrowth, and Government financial deficit, and inflation, and aging degree, andExchange total reserves and net exports as explained variable, to crisis whetheroutbreak as was explained variable, on data for return obtained results, and accordingto empirical analysis results compared emerging economic body and developedeconomic body sovereignty debt crisis causes of similarities and differences, obtainedfollowing conclusions:

        First, Emerging and advanced economies are the subject of the sovereign debtcrisis debt. Huge amount of debts leads to debt repayment difficulties, default risk isan important cause of the debt crisis broke out.

        Second, inflation and international reserves have significant effects on emergingeconomies, no significant effects on developed economies. More serious sovereigndebt risk, the greater the rate of inflation, higher international reserves, sovereign debtrisk is less likely to occur.

        Third, fiscal deficits and aging on the cause of the sovereign-debt crisis inadvanced economies, while emerging economies there were no noteworthy effect ofthe debt crisis broke out. Higher the level of fiscal deficits, aging, the higher thehigher the risk of a sovereign debt crisis.

        Keyword: Sovereign debt crisis;Emerging economies;Advanced economies;Ageing of the population;Deficit


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